Why More Students Are Choosing Colleges in the Sunbelt
By Muntasir • Published Sep 21, 2026 • Updated Sep 21, 2026 • US States & Cities
Colleges in the South and Southwest are gaining students while schools in the Northeast and Midwest lose them. The South is the only US region projected to keep gaining high school graduates through 2041, and it already draws more people moving between states than anywhere else.
🎓 Fall 2023 US college enrollment rose 2.5%, with four year undergraduate enrollment up 3.4%, per NCES.
📈 North Carolina's fall 2024 undergraduate enrollment jumped 9.7%, the largest gain in its region.
🏠 The South gained 2,685,000 net domestic migrants between mid-2020 and mid-2024, more than any other US region.
Texas and Florida are projected to add the most graduating high school seniors of any states through 2041.
38 states will see fewer high school graduates by 2041, but the South keeps growing.
Enrollment is rising again, and the South is leading
US college enrollment grew 2.5% in fall 2023, the first increase in over a decade, according to NCES data . Four year undergraduate enrollment led the recovery, up 3.4% year over year. That national number hides a regional split. Schools in the South and Southwest are absorbing most of the new students, while institutions in the Northeast and Midwest work to hold their numbers steady.
Preliminary fall 2024 figures show the pattern continuing. Undergraduate enrollment grew about 3% nationally, but individual Southern states outpaced that average by a wide margin. North Carolina's undergraduate enrollment climbed 9.7% in fall 2024, the largest increase in its region, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond . West Virginia rose 5.9% and Maryland 5.5%, both above the national growth rate.
| State | Fall 2024 undergrad enrollment change |
|---|---|
| North Carolina | +9.7% |
| West Virginia | +5.9% |
| Maryland | +5.5% |
| South Carolina | +4.1% |
| Virginia | +2.1% |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Fifth District states.
Population is moving south, and college age students are following
The enrollment shift tracks a larger population move. The South was the only US region with positive net domestic migration in 2024, meaning more people moved in than moved out, according to the US Census Bureau . The region gained 2,685,000 net domestic migrants between July 2020 and July 2024.
Texas and Florida drove most of that growth. Texas added 562,941 people and Florida added 467,347 between mid-2023 and mid-2024, together making up close to a third of the entire national population increase. Texas alone gained 85,267 residents through domestic migration that year, more than any other state.
Families who relocate for jobs, housing costs, or retirement bring college age children with them. Many of those students apply to in-state public universities near their new home instead of returning north for college, adding to the applicant pools of Southern flagships.
The South will keep growing while most of the US shrinks
Demographic projections point to years of continued Southern growth. The WICHE Knocking at the College Door report projects that US high school graduates peaked in 2025 and will fall 13% nationally by 2041. The South is the only region set to keep gaining graduates over that stretch, even as the Northeast, Midwest, and most of the West decline.
Texas and Florida are projected to add the most graduating seniors of any states between 2026 and 2041, followed by Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina. WICHE projects that 38 states will see fewer high school graduates by 2041. The states bucking that trend cluster in the South.
The Midwest and Northeast have already seen their total graduate numbers decline, and WICHE projects the West to track the national decline as well. That leaves Southern colleges with a growing local applicant base while most of the country's high schools produce fewer seniors each year.
Why Southern colleges can absorb more students
Capacity matters as much as demand. Many large Southern public university systems added dorms, classroom buildings, and online programs over the past decade in anticipation of this growth, giving them room to enroll more students without turning away as many applicants as schools in shrinking regions.
Climate and cost of living factor into student decisions too. Warmer winters and lower housing costs pull students who might have looked only at Northeast or Midwest options a generation ago. State flagship universities across Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia have also expanded merit scholarship programs and out-of-state tuition breaks to compete for students beyond their borders.
What the shift means for your admissions odds
Popular Southern flagships now draw larger applicant pools, so admission there gets more competitive even as capacity expands. If you apply to a fast-growing school like a University of North Carolina system campus or the University of Florida, expect deeper applicant pools and higher average test scores and GPAs than in past admissions cycles.
Schools in the Northeast and Midwest facing enrollment declines often respond by expanding merit aid or dropping standardized test requirements to keep classes full. If you are open to relocating, those regions often offer better admission odds and stronger aid packages than a Sunbelt school with a swelling applicant pool.
Apply broadly across regions instead of only targeting popular Sunbelt schools.
Check a university's recent enrollment trend data before assuming your target school still has open seats.
Compare in-state tuition rates if your family is considering a move to a Southern state before you apply.
Look at Northeast and Midwest schools facing enrollment pressure. They often offer stronger merit aid to fill seats.