🇨🇳 China: Kaoyan (考研) National Line (国家线) Predictor

1. The Triple-Gate Lock (单科+总分 双重门槛)

The Ministry of Education (教育部) does not accept averages or aggregate scores. To enter 复试 (second-stage interview), the candidate must simultaneously clear:

• Total score ≥ 总分线 (zone-dependent).
• Politics ≥ 单科(满分=100) minimum.
• Foreign language ≥ 单科(满分=100) minimum.
• Every major paper ≥ 单科(满分>100) minimum.

A high total cannot compensate for one failed subject — this is the trap simple aggregate calculators miss.

2. Zone A vs Zone B (一区 / 二区)

Zone A (一区): 21 economically developed provinces — Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi.

Zone B (二区): 10 western/underdeveloped regions — Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang.

Zone B totals are typically 10 points lower; single-subject minimums are 3 points lower (=100 cap). The (>100 cap) reduction scales with the paper's full mark — about 4–6 points on 150-mark majors and roughly 9 points on 300-mark majors.

3. 2025 Trend: National Reset

The 2025 line was released 24 February 2025. Almost every discipline dropped 6–15 points — Economics, Literature, Science, Management and Engineering Management saw the largest 14–15 point declines. Military Science was the only category held flat. The drop tracks a 50-万 fall in applicants (438 万 → 388 万).

4. Beyond the National Line

Clearing 国家线 grants only the right to enter the 调剂 (transfer) pool. Top-tier institutions (985/211 自划线高校) set their own higher 院校线. The 34 自划线 universities release their cutoffs independently before the national line.